The commodity prices in India are not allowing traders to make much money because of the rupee

It is very difficult to go short on gold, silver, crude and any other commodity which is influenced by currency fluctuation because you don’t know what effect is the slide on rupee going to have an impact

So if silver is down 4 % in the international market it is only down 1% in the Indian market so it becomes very difficult to take short position

My view that the commodities are going to go down from here remains intact one can expect further downside in the European market and consequently one can expect commodities to go down

But as i said rupee has spoiled the party and one cannot expect much gain because of that

So i would not advise you to go short as of now, you need big slide in the commodities market to have effect on their prices in India otherwise there is always a chance of getting trapped

So let’s wait and watch as to how the rupee behaves and how the European situation shapes up

But internationally the trend is down but how much of that translates in Indian terms depends on the rupee

So now all that was to be known about the EU meet is out in the open and the markets seem to have given their reaction which seems to be tepid heir is neither exulation and neither is their and big disappointment  .

Their does not seem to be very immediate reaction from the commodities side their has ben slight movement up and down but their is no definitive direction and that seem to be direction that the markets are going to go at best looking for a direction.

So what seems to the way forward it looks that the overall meet is not going to be a success and you can expect some downturn after the initial reaction i see the markets turning downwards after some time the long term direction seems downwards

So i don’t feel that there is going to be runaway rally in commodities anyways the commodities are trading at high so i don’t see much of push but i do think that the downturn is just waiting round the corner

But in the end let’s see what’s the final outcome of the EU meet and then we will come to know of the final reaction of the market

So lets wait and watch for tonight and see what happens 

The commodities of the world are at standstill waiting for a que from Europe  there would be wee bit of movement here in there but yes generally the direction is up with each positive statements coming out of the EU meet you would see bouts of  up moves but then they could be false moves

Unless and until there is clear statements coming out of the eu meet it would not be advisable to take long position but at the same side it would also be very risky to be on the short side any breakthrough can push prices on an immediate upturn.

So keep your trading at bay let’s wait and see what happens to the EU meet and then we should take a position

Rude and gold are at high and so is copper and negative news and the downturn could be swift and brutal so don’t be in position either ways it could be really damaging just wait and watch  

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SO THIS IS NEWS HEAVY WEEK THERE IS EU SUMMIT WHICH WILL DECIDE WHICH DIRECTION THE EUROPEAN MARKETS ARE GOING TO TRADE AND  ALSO WILL DECIDE WHICH DIRECTION CRUDE AND GOLD GO

CRUDE IS TRADING AT HIGH AND THERE SEEMS TO BE STRENGTH IN CRUDE CHARTS

IT LOOKS LIKE THAT IT IS GOING TO GO UP  BUT NEGATIVE NEWS FROM EUROPE COULD SPOIL THAT CRUDE MAY ACTUALLY LOSE VERY FAST IF THE NEWS FROM EUROPE IS NOT GOOD

AND SAME GOES FOR GOLD,

GOLD HAS NOW A POSITIVE CORRETLATION WITH THE EUROPEAN AND US MARRKETS IF THEY GO UP GOLD GOES UP BUT GOLD IS ALSO TARDING AT HIGH ESPECIALLY IN THE INDIAN MARKET THANKS TO A WEAKINING RUPEE

GOLD ALSO LOOKS RIPE FOR CORRECTION BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED AS OF NOW

SO WHAT VIEW YOU SHOULD TAKE GENRALLY WHEN THERE IS BIG SUMMIT THE MARKETS STARTS RALLYING BEFORE THAT IN ANTICIPATION OF A POSITIVE OUTCOME 

SO YOU CAN SEE EUROPAEN MARKETS RALLY IN ANTICIPATION AND UNLESS AND UNTIL SOMETHING HAPPENS TO TURN THE CART THEY SHOULD REMAIN POSTIVE  SO I DONT SEE ANY SELL OFF IN THE FORGIEN MARKETS

SO YOU NEED TO BE PATIENT I DONT RECOMMEND GOING SHORT BUT ALSO DONT WANT TO GO LONG AS OR NOW ITS WAIT AND WATCH SO FOR  NOW 

THE COMMODITY MARKET IS NOW AT A TIPPING POINT IT ALL DEPENDS AS TO HOW EUROPE FARES IN THE COMING DAYS

GOLD HAS HIT AN ALL TIME HIGH IN THE INDIAN MARKETS AND IS NOT GOING DOWN DESPITE FALLING GOLD PRICES INTERNATIONALLY BECAUSE OF THE WEAKNING RUPEE

THE SAME ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR CRUDE PRICES

IF THE RUPEE APPRECIATES FROM HERE YOU CAN SEE SOME EASING OF PRICES IN GOLD AND CRUDE AT THE MCX

COPPER AS LEAD INDICATOR IS IN PERFECT COORDINATION WITH THE WORLD  MARKETS

SO WHAT WILL HAPPEN NOW

TO ME IT SEEMS THAT EUROPE PROBLEMS ARE INCREASING INSTAED OF DECREASING AND THE RISE THAT WE SAW IN THE EUROPEAN MARKETS IN THE LAST MONTH CAN BE REVERSED AND WE CAN SEE A MAJOR DOWNSIDE FROM HERE

I EXPECT COPPER TO LOSE 4-5 % FROM ITS CURRENT LEVEL AND ONE SHOULD BE SHORT ON COPPER FROM HERE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OF COURSE ONE HAS TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE VERY CLOSELY AND IF THEIR IS SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT YOU NED TO GET OUT OF YOUR SHORT POSITION

THE RUPEE SHOULD ALSO APPRECIATE SOME WHICH COULD RESULT IN GOLD PRICES COMING DOWN AND ALSO CRUDE PRICES GOING DOWN

ONE CAN GO SHORT IN GOLD ALSO BECAUSE IF THE GLOBAL CONDITION WORSENS GOLD CAN ALSO GO DOWN BECAUSE OF THE LIQUIDITY CRUNCH

SO ALL IN ALL YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING AT SHORTING OPPORTUNITIES THAT GOING LONG 

the markets world over are in a positive mood and ll the commodities are going up

gold which used to have negative correlation with with the equity markets is now showing a positive correlation with the world markets 

but gold is also showing a negatie correlation with the euro though it seems easy that if the euro is falling gold is rising but what really is  behind the gold rally 

on well level gold is now again becoming the safe haven that is always is but then it should  fall with rising stabilty in the world markets but the demand for gold is going up and the prices seems to be rising despite whatever may be the market behavior 

but to me it seems that gold prices have reached a high and should retreat somewahat on the mcx there should be profit taking rally after this relentless rise .

so  i am looking at selling gold with view of 300-400 point gain but of course with strict stop loss of 100 points 

so lets see wheter that pans out 

with the euro zone crisis nearing a solution the world markets have heaved a sigh of relief and as a result commodity prices have seen a jump up be it  gold copper and crude everything has gone up

so is it going to continue or will we see a reversal in all these commodities well it looks unlikely that the euro leaders will allow the solution to be given away this easily so i don't expect any shockwaves coming out of the euro zone may be some jitters that will push the prices by 2-3 percent but nothing more

but then in trading there is always a reversal someway or the other prices find a reason to fall if they are too high or reason to rise if they are too low as of now the prices of everything is on a high so somehow the prices are more  likely to correct than go up and the trigger can come from anywhere be it china or the US

so what should the trading strategy be for the rest of the week

i would say wait and watch don't take position as of yet

let the news settle and form a direction be it bullish or bearish as of now the world markets are not sure let them make up their minds and then a position can be taken

so wait and watch would be my statregy for this week with a downward bias 

the prices of gold and all the other  commodities have fallen sharply and a positive correlation is now being seen between the equity markets and gold and silver prices which is diametrically opposite from the negative correlation that gold had with the equity markets .

as the equity markets in Europe and US rise you see gold also is  touching highs which is something that does not bode well for a trader because you are not sure which way to trade when would gold again resume its correlation with equity markets and then again would decide to go down when the markets are up is not sure 

so in these times i would say that one should stay away from gold 

crude in that sense is much better bet because its correlation with the world markets is still intact so its better to trade in crude than in gold 

with the new margin requirements now in place it seems that speculative activity is will now come down an that's the aim with which these requirements have been put in place but in whatever short time i have seen the commodity market i have seen them having that effect so there would be big movements in gold and crude watch out for them 

keep a strict stop loss and never never take a overnight position you never know which side of the trade you wake up to 

so happy trading and keep your  comments coming 

the US fed has given its announcement  and the markets have reacted to it

the long  positions in gold which were based on the possibility of a QE3 have unwinded and gold have fallen from its levels yesterday but frankly it has not fallen to level that i had expected

that would mean that gold fundamentals are still intact and it is still the currency that people would flock to when there is uncertainty and the climate looks uncertain

all the markets are down including a sharp fall in the European markets

all these are ideal conditions for gold to go up

yes gold fall when dollor is strengthing but i think that move is done and from here on gold should behave on fundamental basis

so i would advise to take  along position in gold as i think there is upside in gold that would play over the next few days 

THE GOLD MARKET IS IN AN UPTURN THE REASON IS NOT HARD TO GUESS

THE MARKET IS EXPECTING A QE3 FROM THE FED AND ALL COMMODITIES ARE RALLYING ON THAT EXPECTATION

WILL THIS CONTINUES WELL IT CAN BUT THEN GOLD IS ALREADY NEAR ITS HIGH AND TO GO ANY  FURTHER IT REQUIRES A GREAT PUSH

BUT TO FALL IT REQUIRES A LITTLE PUSH SO IF THERE IS NO QE3 THAN AND STILL THE US MARKET RALLIES GOLD CAN FALL VERY SHARPLY

SO I WONT ADVISE LONG POSITIONS ON GOLD WATCH IT IF IT COMES TO 1830 -1840 ON THE COMEX

I AM MORE COMFARTABLE AT THIS POINT TO SHORT GOLD ON RALLIES THAN BUYING IT ON DIPS

SO LETS SEE WHAT COMES OUT OF THE FED MEET 

hello friends

gold went down yesterday but today it has  recovered a bit

dolor is strengthing against all curriensies and that could be one reason for the rise in gold

but European markets are strong and are gaining momentum

the US futures are also pointing to positive start

if the US  market  opens in an uptrend and Europe continues its upward momentum we can see gold coming off somewhat

so i would advise to go short on gold for 200 -300 point profit on the mcx

regards
vishal arora 

hi friends this is first time that i am writing on commodity trading i have been following gold and crude i am sharing my views so hope you like it

the European markets have opened with deep red and seems like that there are new concerns on the banking sector which is keeping the markets down

downward bias in Europe mean that gold is going up but whatever move that had to come down from this opening has come and now the markets would wait for the ques from the american market

the futures are  pointing downwards but remember they are not good indicator  as they change very fast and are not a reliable indicator as to how the US markets are  going to open

if Europe slide further from here you can see a uptick on gold prices but remember gold is trading at around 28200  on the mcx gold has sided from the 283300 to 28400 level every time that it has gone there so unless and until there is major down slide i don't see prices going up much but if the US markets recover you can see gold going down fast

so basically its a shorting opportunity if gold reaches 28400 and thereabouts

well my first views on gold hope somebody finds it useful

and yes if you read my blog do write some comment on whether you like it or not 

this is my new blog  in this i would focus on commodity trading especially gold and crude i write a lot on blogs basically it helps me in summarizing my thoughts and gathering my thoughts sharing this means that anyone else with a view can put forth their views .

but whatever i write should be taken with a large dose of salt as i am not an expert i juts try to put forward what i know hopefully it is useful for someone